Solar physicists wait for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The signal for the start of a new cycle is sighting a particular kind of sunspot. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot, dubbed as number 981, which emerged on the surface of the sun says we’re now IN cycle #24 which will PEAK in 2012.

Severe space weather events often coincide with the appearance of sunspots, which are indicators of particularly intense magnetic fields at the sun’s surface. The weak or silent cycle that we’ve just come out of was 40% higher than normal. What if the PEAK in 2012 is 40% higher than normal?

We don’t want to go there! :-)

The chaotic motion of charged particles in the upper atmosphere of the sun creates magnetic fields that writhe, twist and turn, and occasionally snap and reconfigure themselves in what is known as a “reconnection”. These reconnection events are violent, and can fling out billions of tons of plasma in what’s known as a “coronal mass ejection” (CME).

If flung towards the Earth, and they have been, the plasma ball will accelerate as it travels through space and its intense magnetic field will soon interact with the planet’s magnetic field, the magnetosphere. Depending on the relative orientation of the two fields, several things can happen. If the fields are oriented in the same direction, they slip round one another. In the worst case scenario, though, when the field of a particularly energetic CME opposes the Earth’s field, things get much more dramatic.

“The Earth can’t cope with the plasma,” says James Green, head of NASA’s planetary division. “The CME just opens up the magnetosphere like a can-opener, and matter squirts in.” Not good!

The sun’s activity waxes and wanes every 11 years or so, with the appearance of sunspots following the same cycle. This period isn’t consistent, however. Sometimes the interval between sunspot maxima is as short as nine years, other times as long as 14 years. But the general conclusion is the year 2012 is when we’re most likely to see the maximum sun spot activity and with all the other possibilities for 2012, we’re getting a fairly crowded field.

Filed under: 2012 Predictions